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Forecast track and route before landfall in Texas

Days after landfall, the National Hurricane Center continued to issue advisories on Tropical Storm Beryl, which is located over the southern Gulf of Mexico. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft was investigating Beryl, which is expected to become a hurricane near landfall in Texas.

Other than Beryl, as of 8 am on Saturday, July 6, no tropical cyclone formation was expected for the next 7 days.

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Here is the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. Saturday, July 6:

Spaghetti models: Where will the next hurricane Beryl go?

Special note on spaghetti models: The illustrations include a variety of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five highest-performing models to make its forecasts.

How could Hurricane Beryl affect Florida?

Large waves generated by Beryl are expected to reach much of the U.S. Gulf Coast, including the entire west coast of Florida and the Panhandle. The waves are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Alerts and warnings are issued throughout Florida

Hurricane Beryl: What you need to know

  • Location:495 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas
  • Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph
  • Motion:West-northwest at 12 mph

Hurricane Beryl Watches and Warnings Issued

Hurricane Watch: A hurricane watch is in effect for the following:

  • The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to the San Luis Pass
  • The northeast coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the first expected occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.

Storm surge watchA storm surge warning is in effect for the following:

  • The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to High Island

A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening flooding, due to rising water moving inland from the coast, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Beryl: Update on its strength and projected path

At 8 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located 495 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph. Beryl was moving west-northwest at 12 mph.

It is expected to turn northwestward later today and then north-northwestward Sunday night. Based on the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to approach the Texas coast late Sunday or Monday morning.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but strengthening is expected to begin on Sunday and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane before reaching the Texas coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

How strong is Hurricane Beryl and where is it headed?

Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Beryl

  • There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and mid-Texas coast late Sunday and into Monday, where hurricane and storm surge watches have been issued. Additional watches may be required today. Those in these areas should follow the advice of local officials.
  • Flash and urban flooding is possible along portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and East Texas from Sunday through mid-next week.
  • Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through the weekend along much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local authorities before venturing into the water.

What impact could Hurricane Beryl have and what areas could be affected?

What is a storm surge? Charts explain deadly weather event

Wind: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the Gulf Coast of northeastern Mexico and Texas beginning early Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Sunday night.

Storm surge: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be inundated by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.

  • Baffin Bay, Texas to San Luis Pass, Texas: 3 to 5 feet
  • Corpus Christi Bay: 3 to 5 feet
  • Matagorda Bay: 3 to 5 feet
  • Mouth of the Rio Grande, Texas, to Baffin Bay, Texas: 2 to 4 feet
  • San Luis Pass, Texas to High Island, Texas: 2 to 4 feet
  • Galveston Bay: 2 to 4 feet

The deepest waters will be found along the immediate coast, near and to the right of center, where the surge will be accompanied by large, destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary widely over short distances.

Rain: Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and East Texas beginning Sunday night and through midweek. These rainfalls are likely to produce areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant in nature.

Browse: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently affecting portions of the Yucatan Peninsula coastline. Swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the U.S. Gulf Coast shortly. These swells are expected to produce life-threatening waves and rip currents.

When is Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

National Hurricane Center Map: What are forecasters watching now?

Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

Excessive rainfall forecast

Whats Next?

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